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We open our private racing notebooks for you, and give out some tidbits and info on who's hot right now, and who's not ! We always look for trends to see who's getting hot, and those trends help factor into our figures and selections. Story by MC_Excelsior "The Stick" 2/15/05 The Stick Horse Racing notebooks keep a journal and log of as much information and statistics as we can cram into it. We want to emphasize to you that a great jockey cannot make a poor racehorse win, and a great racehorse does not guarantee an average or apprentice jockey will win. While we could give you a lot of numbers and stats, it would be meaningless to do so without an interpretation of why those numbers are important. We selected Gulfstream and Santa Anita for this article due to the widespread interest at this time of year. The Gulfstream notes :
Trainer's : Todd Pletcher :
"comments - Why did I split my win wager as win-place on Proud Accolade ? WHY ?!.....super trainer ?...D.Wayne's most accomplished protege ?....stop writing down questions...believe. Never leave out of a superfecta box in a graded stakes race." I remember when we used to watch Todd Pletcher saddle D.Wayne Lukas's 'NY Division' and he would always look very professional and well, stiff. It was like he was angry at someone. Maybe he was angry, maybe he was not, but I always thought, this guy stands out in a crowd. I remember thinking when he went out on his own from D.Wayne, that D.Wayne was crazy to let him go. However, that decision is up to Pletcher, not D.Wayne. My thinking was, wow, D.Wayne is going to lose some of his client's to his former assistant, he should pay him to stay. Pletcher has been all business this past year. He is polished, professional, incredible ! How many races can one trainer win in a single year ? They need to put a picture of Todd Pletcher next to the word 'determination' in the dictionary. His work ethic, and depth of stable have given him the Eclipse Award for top trainer. I am not certain of Pletcher's age, but he has to be in his late 30's or early 40's. Imagine the record he can amass as he continues to strengthen and grow over the next 30 years ? We salute T.P. for his accomplishments, and would tell all fans to be very, very wary of leaving his horses out of a triple box if they have won their last race. Enough said about that stat. Daniel Hurtak :
"comments - we're not in Ocala anymore..or Tampa. Calder regular, solid trainer, can he compete with the national trainer's ? ....Yes ! ....Calder vs Gulfstream stats not uniform....would I wager my money on him, should I raise his value in our stats ? ....Yes !" Dan Hurtak is a well known trainer in South Florida. We have been following him on and off, and have seen a very marked improvement of his runner's at all levels. I kept having a dilemma at the start of each Gulfstream Park meeting. Dan Hurtak was doing really well at Calder, and I was debating if he could keep his momentum going in face of the Northeast invasion that occurs every winter. As I said in my notebook's, "YES !" Everytime I asked a question to myself about Hurtak, I always had to answer yes. This is high praise by me. I am a overly critical person of my figures and my product, and I always try to tone down performances to derive a solid figure for 1 trainer and jockey vs another. While I kept looking at Hurtak's win record at a distance, in a sprint, on turf, I kept saying to myself is this guy good enough ? Can he compete with Pletcher, Mott, Zito ? Will I be doing a dis-service to my fans and people who pay me good money to select winners for them if I give him too high a rating figure ? All my doubt's were erased by solid training and results from Mr. Hurtak. As of 2/13/05, Hurtak is tied for 3rd place in the standings with 7 wins. He is tied with such top trainer's like Kiaran McLaughlin, and Richard Dutrow. Both of those trainer's are from NY, and both would be the TOP trainer at a smaller track. I feel very happy for Dan Hurtak. I felt like I was taking a risk in recommending some of his trainee's earlier on in the meeting, but thankfully he came through with well conditioned runners. Dan Hurtak is proof positive, that hard work and solid training will let you run with the 'big dogs', or as Fast Fran would have said, '1-2-no 1, in the tall grass with the big dogs' Well done Mr.Hurtak, well done. Jockey's : Eibar Coa :
"comments - Solid rider, veteran of Florida racing....went to Monmouth in the Summer and did exceptionally well the past 2 years. Can ride with the best in the country." We first started taling about Eibar Coa roughly 3 years ago in our News of the Month for Florida. We noticed a rider with exceptional talent, and patience. Eibar appears to be much more of a middle mover, or late closer then a front running rider. This can be very substantial for our figures and it helps us when the track bias is favoring closers over front runners. Traditionally, a rider like Eibar Coa has a top agent representing him, and has good relations with the best trainer's. Eibar Coa is currently the 2nd leading rider at Gulfstream Park. His win total is 23 from 152 starts. Eibar tried to make a go of it at Belmont Park in NY, but was not as competitive as he is in South Florida. This is due to many reasons. First off, Eibar was a leading rider in the South Florida circuit for many years. He was a leading rider at Calder as well as Gulfstream's stakes meeting, and their off market meeting. As such, Eibar has made a reputable name for himself and is widely used by the local trainer's and owner's. This gives him a big advantage over the NY jockey's who "snowbird" each Winter. While they come down with the big outfits and national trainer's, they have to search for business in the day to day CLMG, and MDN.CLMG races. Its wonderful to be on the favorite in a $100K stake, but the bread and butter of making a living as a jockey is to get as many mounts as possible. Eibar Coa is also a savy business man. By choosing to ride out his Summer schedule at Monmouth, he has developed a Northern following of fans and trainer's who like him. He does not have to go head to head with NY Superstars like Jerry Bailey, Edgar Prado and John Velasquez while he rides for similar purses in New Jersey at Monmouth. Finally, when he chooses to go head to head with the very best riders in the country, Eibar has leverage with trainer's and owner's to get some of the better mounts in each race. All of this combine to make Eibar Coa one of our *Special* use jockeys. He has different figures for sprint and distance races in our notebook, and we give his turf riding ability an "Above Average" ranking. *Note - We do not publish our rankings or figures for jockey's or trainer's. We have to keep our edge in picking winners ! Edgar Prado :
"comments - We call him 'The Amazing Edgar' in our notes and articles. This man is perhaps on the verge of riding greatness and immortality. For pure riding talent and the ability to observe how a race is shaping up out of the gate, the amazing one is one of 5 active riders to be able to take advantage of any scenario. We feel No.Cal rider, Russell Baze if another one who can accomplish this as well. The other 3 remain hidden in our journals." Edgar Prado is from a family of lawyers. I believe he is educated to be one also. Me too Edgar, but we both know what's more enjoyable in Life, don't we ? Edgar is a more muscular jockey then most. He does 'carry' a horse when he wants to motivate them home. He is a strong rider, and his horses finish with good motivation. Of all the jockey's in our notebook's, Edgar Prado is a true switch hitter. He can ride 'front runner', and 'late closers' with equal success. Even when his horse is pinched back on the rail, Edgar has the ability to bull his way through. His combination of strength and cunning, make this jockey, a certain inductee to the Racing Hall of Fame in the future. It remains to be seen if E.P. will translate his talents to a dominating season like Jerry Bailey, or Angel Cordero or Chris McCarron, or Laffit Pincay or Gary Stevens have enjoyed in the 1980's and 1990's. He has the talent to do it, but even the great masters had to spend entire season's at major track's that were not their home track. Jerry Bailey may be an exception to that rule, as he seems to win no matter where you drop him off. It would be a fun and devious experiment(like in the TV classic, "The Prisoner") to have Jerry Bailey parachuted in to Happy Valley Race Track in China, and tell him, you have to win the title to be allowed to leave. No doubt Jerry would be King of that track too ! However, we're talking about Edgar Prado here, not JD. Edgar Prado cannot ever be dismissed in any race on any odds level horse. Even when he is listed on a 20-1 morning line horse, I carefully handicap that horse to see if any favorable angle would help him win. You can BET that Edgar will be riding with just that strategy in mind when the gates fly open. I feel strongly that Edgar Prado can challenge John Velasquez as the King of all Jockey's, however, Edgar Prado has to face not one opponent, but two. John Velasquez's agent, Angel Cordero, jr. is the greatest rider in NY racing history. Bar none. Arcaro, Shoemaker, name anyone you want, but to "The Stick", Angel was and is the Greatest rider NY has ever seen. Combine Angel with John Velasquez's talent, and Edgar Prado faces a roadblock to being #1. This is not to say Edgar cannot overcome this 'tag team' of doom. Like they say in boxing..."It will be a war" . *Note - there is a strong level of professionalism among riders, and as far as we know, Johhny V and Edgar Prado are friends. We mention their rivalry to entice fans to enjoy the competition and the sport. I will complete the Stick Racing Notebook excerpts in another 4 articles to be posted shortly. Check back soon for more Stick Notebook, on Trainer's and Jockey's we keep track of. Best Racing and Regards, MC
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