NEWS STORY 14 - Champagne Joe reports in from the coast. Welcome back Champagne ! Derby watch candidates
Champagne has some good numbers and statistics to share with the fans. We also have the early watch list from Champagne for the Kentucky derby. You can be assured that we will be watching these horses very closely over the coming weeks and months as we march towards the first Saturday in May.

Story by Champagne Joe

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3/10/05

At Santa Anita As you may know Patrick Valenzuela has come back with a vengeance! Since his successful appeal to the CHRB RE: his "permanent" suspension, Valenzuela has risen like a Cape Canaveral rocket in the winning jockey ranking, & has moved to the #3 position despite missing the first weeks of the current meet, & despite having recorded the least number of mounts of the top 6 winingest jockeys.

As of this writing his win pct. of 20% leads the pack, & his In The Money pct. (also top of the list) is near 60. Of the top 15 jockeys at this meet onlyGary Stevens is even close to that ITM pct. with 56% ITM. Those numbers are important, & why you ask? Well, there's a simple angle play using the win & ITM pcts. of the jockeys along with those same pcts. of the trainers which often points to potential winners. It's another simple tool of number addition to incorporate in your handicapping.

Simply add the win pct. of the jockey/trainer & the ITM of the two. IE: Doug O'Neills win pct. is 22, his ITM pct. is 51. P. Vals win pct. is 20, ITM is 58. Thus combined their numbers work out to 42% win & 109% ITM. Trainer Mike Mitchells win pct. is 23, ITM is 54. With Gary Stevens up on his mount, Garys numbers are 18% win/56% ITM, their numbers add up to 41%win/110% ITM. Leading rider Tyler Baze sports a 16% win/43% ITM. Say Tyler is up on a Baffert trained entry, Baffert shows a 15% win/39% ITM. Their combine numbers add up to 31% win/82% ITM.In such a race, based on trainer/jockey added numbers, P.Val & G. Stevens should be sent off as co favorites or very close to top favs.

It is a rare occurence when all 3 of the top added number entries run poorly. For horizontal wagerers this formula often catches some decent priced pk 3 & pk 4s.

Derby watch..Declans Moon seems best at this point/Bandini is the very possible upsetter/Afleet Alex seems to improve with every start/Rockport Harbor may have a shot if he gets in/High Fly & Fusiachi Rock Star could surprise.

Be sure to get THESTICKs Derby picks when they're released! Good Luck!

Champagne Joe

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