NEWS STORY 2 - PLAYING FAV'S TRUE OR FALSE
by Champagne Joe.
The views and opinions in this article are those of Champagne's and are not always consistent with the views of www.TheStickHorseRacing.Com

PLAYING FAVS; TRUE OR FALSE

The question that often arises is that question pertaining to when it may be either wise or unwise to wager on favorites. The statistical proven fact is that favorites will win on an average of from 28 to 35% at any racetrack, although that pct. could rise or fall to a 40% high, or a 25% low at any meet. Still, over time, the average win pct. for favorites works out to around 33%.

Now, there are some racing aficionds who say one must always try to beat, and play against the favorites. If one followed this advice, then one would never wager on thoroughbred champions such as Secretariat, Cigar, or Azeri, and if the pcts. hold true, such play would guarantee at least one loss from every three wagers.

Sometimes a wager on a favorite may be your best bet, when that favorite is a "true" favorite, a thoroughbred who, based on past performances, deserves to be a favorite, as opposed to what I call a "false" favorite. The trick is in determing which race favorite really shouldn't be the favorite in that particular race, and as such, should be considered a "false" fav.

Most often "false" favs may be uncovered in in three types of races. 1. Maiden races, especially those races where several or all are first time starters with less than stellar work tabs. 2. Among older horses with all showing a less than .166 win pct (IE: 5 wins from 30 starts or equivalent) and 3. In higher purse, non graded, more evenly matched races where any one of the entries could be considered worthy of a favorite status. In such circumstances a play against the fav certainly could be the right way to go. In most other situations, however, playing the "true" favorite could be your best bet of the day.

Thus, one should never be hesitant to play any favorite, even at very short odds, when the facts clearly point to that fav as being the one and only runner deserving enough to be considered a "true" favorite. I'm not! Good luck!

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